Will Back-to-School Shopping Reach Record Levels
A recent Retail Wire article provides a detailed analysis of the 2023 back-to-school shopping season, highlighting contrasting predictions from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Deloitte, and augmented by insights from retail experts including Carol Spieckerman. The article delves into consumer spending behaviors, inflation impacts, and the quest for value in a fluctuating economy.
The NRF's survey, with a large sample of 7,843 consumers, predicts a record-breaking year for back-to-school spending, forecasting expenditures to soar to $41.5 billion. This surge is attributed to a heightened demand for electronics, with a notable 69% of consumers planning technology purchases. In stark contrast, Deloitte's smaller-scale survey of 1,212 parents indicates a potential 10% year-over-year decrease in spending, with a pivot towards essentials and away from non-essentials like tech and apparel.
Carol Spieckerman, retail strategist and president of Spieckerman Retail, provides a nuanced interpretation of these findings, suggesting that the disparity may be rooted in consumer psychology and spending habits influenced by recent inflationary pressures. Despite inflation's decline, the residual consumer caution persists, manifesting in cost-cutting behaviors and a tendency to switch from national to private brands or prefer discount stores over mass retailers. These trends, according to Spieckerman, indicate a shift in spending rather than outright reductions, as consumers seek value without compromising on their children's needs.
Echoing these sentiments, Phil Rist of Prosper Insights & Analytics acknowledges the consumer's hunt for bargains, underscoring a widespread comparison of prices and a tilt towards off-brand items. Furthermore, despite concerns about 'shrinkflation' and rising prices as highlighted by Cathy Hotka, founder of Cathy Hotka & Associates, parents are expected to potentially splurge on certain categories like clothing and electronics, driven by reasons like treating their children or ensuring quality.
In conclusion, the article paints a complex picture of the back-to-school shopping season, with industry experts like Carol Spieckerman providing clarity amidst the dichotomy of reports. While inflation has left its mark, driving parents towards more economical choices, there remains room for indulgence in certain product categories, suggesting a dynamic retail landscape marked by prudent but purposeful spending.
